An Early Christmas

You’ve probably seen this by now, but just in case you haven’t, here’s a prediction that Amazon will be giving away the Kindle before the year is out:

In October 2009 John Walkenbach noticed that the price of the Kindle was falling at a consistent rate, lowering almost on a schedule. By June 2010, the rate was so unwavering that he could easily forecast the date at which the Kindle would be free: November 2011.

Since then I’ve mentioned this forecast to all kinds of folks. In August, 2010 I had the chance to point it out to Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon. He merely smiled and said, “Oh, you noticed that!” And then smiled again.

The Technium: Free Kindle This November

It goes into speculation about the business model at work here, and how they might pull this off.

Do I think it’ll happen?  Maybe.  It’s an interesting idea, at any rate, and something I kind of suspected might happen eventually back when they rolled out the first Kindles.  Am I sorry I just bought one, instead of waiting to see if they really do start giving them away?  Naaah.  I’m way too impatient to wait that long.