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The Passive Voice looks at the J.K. Rowling self-publishing announcement, and discusses in detail all the ways it’s disruptive to traditional publishing and book distribution models. But, if that doesn’t float your boat — and I’m assuming most of the hardcore Potterheads in my readership are still fast asleep, having called in sick after last night’s midnight showings of Deathly Hallows — you might be more interested in his look ahead at other big news stories he thinks we’ll see about self-publishing:

Putting on his prediction hat, Passive Guy says we’ll see:

• Continuing reduction in the number of physical bookstores (easy to predict)
• Further consolidation of publishers (also easy)
• More big author names announcing some version of indie publishing (easy)
• More Wellesley English majors looking for work outside publishing/agenting (barista training booms)
• Continuing proliferation of ereaders and/or tablet devices conducive to reading and reductions in ereader and tablet prices (easy)
• A giant ebook/ereader Christmas season in 2012 (easy)
• Nastier publishing and agency contracts designed to lock up authors forever (easy)
• More John Lockes and Amanda Hockings appearing among indie authors
• Continuing rapid innovation in publicity strategies for indie authors
• More crowded online bookstores
• More aggressive talent searches by movie/TV types or new-style agents among indie authors as the publisher/agent pipeline of books begins to dry up
• On the lawsuit front (after authors work through their battered wife/husband/child codependency syndromes):
  • One or more lawsuits by authors against their publishers and/or agents for underpayment of royalties
  • One or more lawsuits by authors against their agents for misrepresentation of the benefits and consequences of agent-as-publisher agreements
  • Multiple lawsuits by authors trying to break publisher/agent contracts

But what doesn’t change?

People will continue to want stories, new stories, interesting stories, stories that bend their minds and touch their hearts.

Storytellers are always necessary.

People are always willing to pay for good stories.

I know that a lot of writers are shy, retiring, anti-social types, who hate speaking in public, hate doing readings, and are nervous about meeting their fans.  But, man, that’s not me.  Me, I love an audience, I love meeting people.  Whenever I’ve daydreamed about Being An Author, that daydream has always involved hitting the road for a book tour.

So I totally sympathize with Rebecca Skloot when she says:

I fantasized about driving cross country with the boyfriend, our dogs, and a herd of our closest friends in a big tour bus [....]

The people at Crown, my publishing house, said, “We don’t really do book tours anymore,” and “They’re just not the best investment of publicity funds.” My agent agreed. They explained cost-benefit ratios and said their money was better spent on banner ads, buzz campaigns, and bookstore placement. Instead of talking about a tour bus covered with cells, they talked of blogs and satellite radio tours, of Twittering and Facebooking to interact with readers. I listened and agreed; it all made perfect sense. Then I went home and thought, but I still want to go on a book tour.

[...] I don’t believe all tours are dead, just the old-fashioned kind, where publishers organize events and writers simply show up hoping for a room full of people. I agree that social networking and online campaigns are the most important tools in book publicity. But I don’t see book tours and the online world as separate entities. Rather than replacing tours, I believe the new virtual world of book publicity can help keep them alive.

– The Immortal Book Tour.

Check out the article to see how she did just that, and then read her followup guest blog post at Powells.com to see how well it worked out.

So, yeah, these e-readers, I’m starting to think they might catch on:

Are books the new killer app?

A new study by the Pew Internet and American Life Project shows that e-reader ownership among U.S. adults doubled from 6% to 12% between November 2010 and May 2011. This marks the first time ownership of devices such as the Kindle and Nook has reached double digits.

[....] According to the study, 22% of households with college graduates now own an e-reader, up from 8% in November 2010. Similarly, 24% of households with income over $75,000 now own an e-reader.

– E-Reader Ownership Doubles in Six Months – Digits – WSJ.

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